Australia Materials: China and the Miners

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Materials: China and the Miners

Idea

June 28, 2026 07:57 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

China and the Miners R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our monthly report summarizes key data/charts from China to

give investors quick insights into China's macroenvironment and

its demand for mineral resources.

China view – Growth softens on weak domestic demand: Our China economics

team notes that May activity reinforces a more entrenched two‑speed economy, Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

with export‑led production holding up while domestic consumption and investment Industry View Attractive

weaken. Retail sales turned negative and the property sector remains fragile.

Recent research:

Weaker govt. bond issuance and infrastructure FAI slump reflect a project-pipeline

Iluka Resources Ltd: Commercial offtake

lull post-1Q front-loading. They see 2Q GDP tracking at 4.4% YoY, and expect policy

validates industry and ILU's project, unlocks

to step up capex‑focused fiscal rollout from 3Q, particularly support for AI

funding (23 Jun 2026)

computing networks, data centers, and smart grids under the "Six Networks"

Australia Materials: Takeaways from Rare Earth

initiative as geopolitical tensions reinforce the imperative of energy security and

Permanent Magnet Industry Discussion (23 Jun

tech self-sufficiency (see here).

2026)

Macro – Property outlook weakens: China’s IP was 4.5% YoY in May (April 4.1%); Energy Security: Virtual ASEAN Summit 2026

May PMI was 50 (April 50.3). May CPI was 1.2% YoY (April 1.2%). New property Feedback: Rare Earths, Power Grids and AI (22