LNG

Research evidence excerpt

LNG

Model Changes

Relative to our March update, our 2026 and 2027 balances have tightened. For 2026, the predominant driver of tightening is

the sustained outage in Qatar, with some modest downgrades to our expected ramp for Golden Pass in the US, among other

changes. Likewise, the latter carries into our 2027 balance, which nevertheless appears well supplied following a tight winter

season. For 2028, our changes are relatively minor.

For Qatari supply, we model a resumption to ~55-60% of pre-war levels for Q3 '26, with Q4 '26 operating close to a now-

reduced capacity level. Recent tragic events in Qatar (Barzan explosion) illustrate potential challenges around this capacity

restart, although messaging from Qatar suggests this will not impact exports. In any event, we note reports have indicated

Qatar intends to resume capacity rapidly. All told, our estimates are broadly consistent with this ambition.

Asia In Focus

Market remains quiet ahead of the last summer heat risk

Even after Platts August JKM slipped into the US$15-16/MMBtu range following the MOU announcement, most Asian

importers stayed on the sidelines, closely watching the pace of Qatar’s supply recovery after the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

With North Asian summer only a few weeks away, the market has been surprisingly calm despite low gas inventories across

several countries.

Hesitation around restocking likely stems from the relatively modest JKM rally since the war began and the prospect of a

mild winter. After spiking to US$25 in March, JKM has held below US$20, well below levels seen during the Russia–Ukraine

war. As we noted in our last Compendium, global growth in LNG liquefaction and storage capacity, a more diversified power