Kongsberg Gruppen-Big overreaction to German frigate program news, in our view-06/24/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Kongsberg Gruppen-Big overreaction to German frigate program news, in our view-06/24/2026

Kongsberg Gruppen

NEWSFLASH | 24 JUN 2026

Big overreaction to German frigate program news, in our view

Germany will scrap plans for six F126 frigates (RHM, Damen Naval) and instead buy eight smaller MEKO A-200 frigates from

TKMS. Rheinmetall is down 12%, KOG -5%, SAAB -3%, BAE and Thales ~-2%. We are surprised by the magnitude of KOG's

decline. KOG has not been awarded any F126 contracts, and even assuming NSM integration, the six ships would have

generated only ~NOK 3.5-5.0bn of orders and ~NOK 1bn of EBITDA, versus a ~NOK 13bn market cap loss today. The move

suggests investors fear negative spillover to broader naval programs, although BAE and Thales have moved far less. We

disagree. The F126 cancellation is a contractor failure story, not a demand story. Damen's CAD/PLM software broke down,

preventing transfer of design data and triggering suspension of milestone payments by the MoD. Germany is replacing a

troubled procurement vehicle with a faster one, not scaling back. With TKMS (KOG's partner on the 212CD submarine ) now

owning the surface replacement program, the contractor switch arguably opens more doors for KOG than the F126 ever

would have. Buy the dip.

Fabian Jørgensen

+47 22 87 88 43, fabian.jorgensen@paretosec.com

Marcus Gavelli

+47 24 02 81 12, marcus.gavelli@paretosec.com

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