Daiwa Securities Group (8601): FY27/3 1Q estimates: 1Q OP likely up 7% QoQ

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Daiwa Securities Group (8601): FY27/3 1Q estimates: 1Q OP likely up 7% QoQ

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Daiwa Securities Group (8601)

FY27/3 1Q estimates: 1Q OP likely up 7%

QoQ

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 1,750 JPY | Price: 1,590 JPY

25 June 2026

1Q net profit flat QoQ; OP +7% QoQ Equity

We estimate 1Q net profit at ¥49.8bn (-0.1% QoQ, +59% YoY). Ordinary profit we see

strong at ¥71.8bn (+7% QoQ, +64% YoY), but net profit likely flat QoQ due to special

gains booked in 4Q. For GM revenue, we expect FICC to decline QoQ while equities Key Changes

increase, resulting in flat QoQ overall. Thus we see revenue growth as lower than (¥) Previous Current

Nomura, but given higher contribution from WM, we forecast ordinary profit to rise 7% Price Obj. 1,670.00 1,750.00

QoQ, not so inferior to our estimate of Nomura’s adj. pre-tax profit increasing 10% QoQ. 2027E EPS 125.02 133.79

2028E EPS 127.85 134.95Reiterate Neutral; raise PO to ¥1,750 (from ¥1,670)

Our previous PO assumed ROE of 10.5% and a cost of equity of 8.5%, applying a target 2029E EPS 134.47 143.54

P/B of 1.24x to our forecast FY3/27-end BPS. Our 1Q estimate implies an annualized

ROE of 11.3%, or 11.1% excluding disposal gains. Our forecasts do not yet include ORIX Natsumu Tsujino, CFA >>

Research Analyst

Bank. We estimate the acquisition would contribute around ¥20bn to annual net profit BofAS Japan

pre-amortization and around ¥10bn post-amortization, increasing net profit by 5–6% and +81natsumu.tsujino@bofa.com3 6225-8720

contributing around 60bp to ROE. On this basis, ROE would reach near 12% post-

acquisition.

While it is difficult to fully incorporate this into the PO, the previous 10.5% ROE did not

reflect the ORIX Bank acquisition, which is expected to complete in October. We now Stock Data