LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Deutsche Bank

Research

Latin America Economics Date

26 June 2026

LatAm Week

Outlook

Macro and Strategy Highlights

Francisco Campos

Market Outlook Chief LatAm Economist

n The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran +1-212-250-9764

has underpinned a sharp decline of oil prices. Financial markets, however,

remain relatively volatile on the back of latent risks to the sustainability of Beatriz Garcia Nunes

the ceasefire and renewed concerns over the technology sector. LatAm Economist

+1-212-250-9584

n FX markets have been driven lately by the hawkish Fed repricing, which has

Carlos Munoz-Carcamo

strengthened the broader dollar.

Macro Strategist

n However, USD upside is less compelling now: +1-212-250-2259

n Rates already repriced: less room for further bullish repricing.

Christian Wietoska

n We are of the view that we are closer to the top of the recent DXY Strategist

range rather than the start of a new USD leg higher. +44-20-754-52424

n In LatAm, we continue having a positive bias on BRL, given its high carry,

resilience in the current account – particularly exports – and marginally

better global risk sentiment. We see USDBRL around 5.20 as good entry

levels for long BRL positions, in a context where positioning has lightened

up.

n We keep a neutral bias on MXN. Despite our recent change of call on

Banxico – our team now expects a rate hike by year-end – the economy is

showing structural signs of weakness.

n In Colombia, while there are reasons to be constructive on the upcoming

ADLE administration, we believe the market is pricing an overly optimistic

view on Colombia's fundamentals, particularly on the fiscal front.

n As such, we retain a neutral bias on COP and see limited scope for