Freight for Thought: 10 potential tailwinds for FedEx Freight

Research evidence excerpt

Freight for Thought: 10 potential tailwinds for FedEx Freight

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Transportation Freight for Thought 26 June 2026

10 potential tailwinds for FedEx Freight

Richa Harnain, CFA

Of course, any spin—or newly independent entity—comes with its fair share of Research Analyst

reservations and complexity. For FDXF, one fundamental question is how renewal +1-212-250-6285

discussions around unbundled freight evolve (10% of the business) — and

whether any related volume attrition ultimately proves helpful or harmful to the Megan Makini

Research Associate business. On the technical side, we are mindful of FDX’s retained 19.9% stake in +1-212-2501458

FDXF, which is expected to be divested over the next two years and could create

selling pressure. That said, FDXF’s first earnings call as a standalone company

gave investors plenty to unpack — and, in the spirit of a fresh start, we focus

below on ten potential tailwinds for the nation’s largest and newly independent

LTL carrier.

1) Potential for ~60% incrementals?

FDXF’s outlook for the June–December 2026 transition period calls for an 11.8%

operating margin, consistent with the comparable period in 2025, on 4–6%

revenue growth. However, that bridge includes 250 bps of headwinds, 130 bps

of which is tied to variable compensation and the remainder to Transition Service

Agreements (TSA) costs. While some portion of those costs will likely recur, we

do not expect the full headwinds to persist in 2027 and beyond. Nor do we think

they will increase every year (in fact, TSA costs should decline into 2028; see point

9). Excluding the headwind from both cost-items would imply roughly 250 bps of

margin expansion on 5% revenue growth in 2H, equating to an incremental