Global Gas Monitor - June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Global Gas Monitor - June 2026

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 24, 2026

■Integrated Oil: Integrated Oils & Major Global Gas Monitor - June 2026

Producers

■Midstream

Jason Gabelman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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The Middle East conflict has pushed out global gas oversupply from '27 to '28. Prices should

jason.gabelman@tdsecurities.com

strengthen through Summer as Europe pulls supply to refill inventories, and remain relatively

Will Avila strong through '27. EQNR, TTE, SHELL, LNG, and NEXT should benefit from higher prices.

646 562 1344 XOM potentially exploring M&A to diversify lng from ME could indicate a durable shift in how

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industry views the region.

Oversupply Pushed out to 2028

The Middle East conflict has pushed out the expected oversupply from 2027 to at least 2028,

while companies could look to increasingly diversify exposure from the Middle East in the

medium-term. Spot prices have fallen from $20 early in the conflict to $16 and then $13 since

the recent ceasefire. FY27 and FY28 remain in double digits. We expect global gas prices will

strengthen through summer as Europe needs to refill inventories, with prices trending toward

the high teen based on substitutions for other fuels (exhibit 4). Price should remain strong next

year, firmly in double digits, before falling to ~$8/mcf from 2028+.

Tight in 2026, Balanced in '27, Oversupplied 2028+

We expect a tight market in 2026 with net supply roughly flat accounting for disrupted Qatari

volumes and Europe alone growing 15MM tpa. For 2026-27, we forecast underlying demand

up 63MM tpa vs supply up ~70MM tpa assuming 12MM tpa Qatari capacity remains offline

until 2029. The market should therefore remain relatively balanced-to-tight over this period.