Big Food Trends Continue To Soften; HPC Remains Fairly Stable

Research evidence excerpt

Big Food Trends Continue To Soften; HPC Remains Fairly Stable

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 24, 2026

■Food: Food Producers Big Food Trends Continue To Soften; HPC

■Household & Personal Care

Remains Fairly Stable

Robert Moskow THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1474

Big Food declined -1.8% in the L2W ending June 13 compared to -0.4% YTD. Cutbacks to SNAP

robert.moskow@tdsecurities.com

subsidies, slowly rising food prices, and higher gas prices caused volume declines across the

Sergio Matsumoto grocery store. However, Big Food continues to underperform owing to market share losses and

646 562 1339 price elasticity. Big HPC grew +2.6% in the L2W compared to +2.2% YTD.

sergio.matsumoto@tdsecurities.com

Jacob Henry, CFA Note: Easter 2025 was on April 20th. Easter 2026 was on April 5th. Our data includes the

646 562 1380 Amazon 1P, Costco, and Pet Retail channels.

jacob.henry@tdsecurities.com

HPC: Sales Growth Remains Favorable, Albeit On Easy Comparisons

Victor Ma

646 562 1306 Big HPC’s sales growth remained relatively strong in L2W, including P&G up 3.0%, Clorox up

victor.ma2@tdsecurities.com 4.1%, and Colgate up 4.2%. The 2-year CAGR was relatively stable owing to easy comparisons

to the prior year. Price/Mix has dipped negative across the group due to heightened

Seamus Cassidy

promotional discounting, especially CLX and KMB. We now expect pricing to remain subdued646 562 1319

seamus.cassidy@tdsecurities.com given that oil costs have dipped back below $80/barrel. This is likely to cause near-term

pressure on profits margins beginning in 3Q26 followed by margin recovery in 1Q27 if costs

remain low.

Food: Volume Declines In A Weak Backdrop

Price realization has returned to positive territory, but this has caused volume declines to