NDR Takeaways: Specialty Model Drives Durable Earnings Into a Changing Market

Research evidence excerpt

NDR Takeaways: Specialty Model Drives Durable Earnings Into a Changing Market

USA | P&C Insurance/Insurtech

AXIS Capital EquityJuneResearch22, 2026

COMPANY UPDATENDR Takeaways: Specialty Model Drives Durable

RATING BUYEarnings Into a Changing Market

PRICE $100.99^

We hosted AXS CEO Vince Tizzio and CFO Matt Kirk for meetings in LA/Denver

6/17-18. While AXS is not immune to softer property pricing or social inflation, PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $122.00 | +21%

we believe the company has a better mix, strong underwriting controls, and 52W HIGH-LOW $110.34 - $88.07

more growth levers than it had historically. We continue to see the setup as one FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.8% | 64.38

where modest loss ratio drift can be offset by expense efficiency, fee income, MARKET CAP $7.4B

disciplined capital deployment, and continued Insurance growth. TICKER AXS ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Market conditions are transitioning, but still adequate to grow selectively. Management

acknowledged the market is transitioning. Property pricing has become more competitive, and

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

negotiations with brokers are getting harder, particularly as capital remains available. As mentioned

2026 2027 2026 2027

in 1Q26, property pricing was down 13%, though management noted business written still met

return expectations. Liability rates were +9%, with AXS leaning into international liability while REV NA NA -3% -4%

remaining cautious on U.S. casualty and public D&O/cyber. EPS NA NA NM +3%

Management does not view this as a disorderly soft market. Terms and conditions are broadly 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

holding, capacity grants generally are not expanding outside of lines like global property, and EPS 3.42 3.63 2.79 3.51 13.35