2Q26 P&C Carriers Preview: Resilient Stocks Amid Familiar Headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 P&C Carriers Preview: Resilient Stocks Amid Familiar Headwinds

m-rated on KNSL (13% downside at 2.9x P/B on growth, the subgroups

Stock price breakdown YTD 2026. Based onmargins, valuation) and LMND (49% downside on long-term profitability and valuation). 2026 consensus EPS

30%

25%Key stocks into 2Q26 prints: We have a neutral-to-negative EPS bias into the quarter largely 20%

reflecting higher CAT (see view into quarter and metrics that matter table). Ex-CAT for positive 15%10%

catalysts seem minimal, but we highlight stronger than street 1) personal auto AYLRs for ALL/ 5%0%

PGR/ROOT, 2) NPE growth for LMND/PLMR/SKWD, and 3) BBs for AIG/TRV/ACGL. We see growth -10%-5%

-20%risk -15% broadly and highlight notably lower estimates for 1) reinsurance segments of ACGL/AXS/EG/

PLGO ALL SKWD TRV CB RNR SPNT EG AFG ACGL AXS WRB PLMR PGR HIG RLI AIG MKL KNSL 500S&P LifeS&P P&CS&P FinsS&P BrokersS&PRNR (P-CAT), 2) personal auto/lines segments of ALL/CB/TRV, and 3) certain specialty carriers incl.

AFG/KNSL/MKL. EPS revisions P/E multiple changeInsurance Carriers Stock Price change Group avg. stockIndiciesprice change

.

Source: FactSet, Jefferies

Market Competition: Similar to last quarter, 2Q26 faces a challenging comparison, particularly in

property where double-digit rate declines are likely to pressure growth and rate commentary. While

YoY property headwinds could begin to ease in 2H26, casualty pricing could see momentum slow

as competition increases, with rates in some areas approaching loss trend. Overall, we expect

underlying loss ratios to drift higher through the year, albeit from historically favorable levels. In

personal lines, ongoing rate cuts could support PIF growth for some carriers, though at the expense

of slower NPW growth.