Japan/US actual, profit growth forecast update: 22 June

Research evidence excerpt

Japan/US actual, profit growth forecast update: 22 June

22 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Strategy / Equity

US Equity Strategy

Domestic demand sectors show signs of life in both Japan and the US

Global Senior Strategist: US equities: Consumption related stock recovery broadening

Takaaki Hironaka As of Thursday 18 June, 497 of the 500 major companies (S&P 500)

+81 3 6202 8554 had reported their Jan–Mar quarterly results (including companies with non-

takaaki.hironaka@mizuho-sc.com coterminous year ends). The forecast YoY profit growth rate for the Jan–Mar

2026 quarter (bottom-up forecast consensus) stands at +29.3% YoY, down

slightly from the prior week (+29.4%). For Apr–Jun 2026, the consensus is for

profit growth of +22.9% YoY (consensus as of the prior week: +22.8%); for

Jul–Sep 2026, +25.0% (prior week: +24.8%); for Oct–Dec 2026, +23.7% (prior

week: +23.4%); and for Jan–Mar 2027, +14.8% (prior week: +14.3%).

Analysts’ revisions to earnings forecasts have been extremely limited due to

the current lull between reporting seasons with few results announcements

and the long weekend as a result of Friday 19 June being the Juneteenth

national holiday. Despite last week’s exchange of a memorandum of

understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran on a ceasefire, this has yet

to really be factored into earnings trends so far. At +27.1%, the revision

index was generally flat compared to +28.1% in the prior week (revision

index as of 12 June). Revisions for individual sectors have largely been

moving consistently with the established trend, although there is now a clear

recovery for consumption related stocks, as we mentioned last week. While

consumption remains firm at the macro level, one reason is the likely progress

in returning tariff payments going forward.