Australia Materials: Spot Base Consensus: 26 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Materials: Spot Base Consensus: 26 June 2026

Idea

June 26, 2026 09:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 26 June R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Iluka Resources Ltd: Commercial offtake

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

validates industry and ILU's project, unlocks

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up funding (23 Jun 2026)

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – Australia Materials: Takeaways from Rare Earth

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way Risks (8 Apr 2026). Permanent Magnet Industry Discussion (23 Jun

2026)

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

Energy Security: Virtual ASEAN Summit 2026

50% Feedback: Rare Earths, Power Grids and AI (22

40% Jun 2026)

BHP Group Ltd: Jansen Stage 2 capex and

30%

schedule reset in line with MSe (18 Jun 2026)

20% Sustainability & Metals & Mining: EU's Critical

10% Raw Materials Security in a Multipolar World (5

0% Jun 2026)

Asia Energy Security and AI: Energy Meets

-10%

Compute: Supercycle Recharges (21 May 2026)

-20%

-30%