Investor Presentation: Japan Summer School: 半導体・民生用エレクトロニクス

Research evidence excerpt

Investor Presentation: Japan Summer School: 半導体・民生用エレクトロニクス

FoundationM

Semiconductor market overview (8): End market

End market forecast

- Servers: Cloud capex spending intensity (million units)

is expected to remain historical highest in CY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26e 27e

CY26, at ~30% of revenue. Server 9.6 10.2 11.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.9 12.4 14.5 16.4 16.7 16.8

AI servers 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4

General Compute 9.6 10.2 11.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.9 12.1 13.7 16.1 16.3 16.4

- PC: We view cautious on the CY26 PC PC 256 261 260 268 307 354 294 253 262 289 250 241

market, as demand pull-forward, rising Desktop 101 101 96 96 86 96 86 72 73 84 73 72

Notebooks 155 161 164 172 221 258 208 181 189 205 177 170

input costs, and tougher YoY

Smartphone 1,469 1,465 1,403 1,373 1,281 1,360 1,206 1,165 1,237 1,264 1,094 1,133

comparisons are likely to weigh on

Apple iPhone 215 216 209 191 203 236 227 236 234 252 252 267

demand. We forecast overall PC Android 1,244 1,250 1,194 1,182 1,078 1,124 980 930 1,003 1,012 842 866

shipments to decline 13% YoY in CY26. Light Vehicle 92 94 94 90 77 80 79 87 89 91 91 93

ICE 92 94 93 88 75 75 71 76 77 76 75 75

BEV 1 1 1 1 2 5 8 10 12 15 16 18

- Smartphone: We forecast smartphone Game console 30 34 35 35 38 38 34 40 32 39 38 29

shipments to decline 13% YoY in CY26, Sony PlayStation 19 19 18 15 11 15 15 23 20 17 20 10

as memory cost inflation drives higher Nintendo Switch & Switch 2 11 15 17 20 27 24 19 17 11 22 18 19

device prices and weighs on demand, YoY % change

particularly for Android vendors. Server -2% 7% 16% 0% 7% 7% 10% -17% 17% 13% 1% 1%

AI servers 169% -60% 23% 5%

General Compute -2% 7% 16% 0% 7% 7% 10% -19% 13% 18% 1% 1%

- Automotive: We see a potential PC -6% 2% 0% 3% 15% 15% -17% -14% 3% 10% -13% -3%