Thailand tourism

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand tourism

Macquarie Equity Research

24 June 2026

Consumer

Consumer Services

ASEANThailand tourism

Tourism sector more resilient than expected

Suwat

Key Points Saeung

• Hotel operators posted stronger-than-expected RevPAR growth in

April-May. Although pricing power was weak, occupancy remained solid

in 2Q26. Figure 1 - Recommendations and

target prices

• Chinese tourist recovery from low base is a key driver for PAX volume Price

and hotel occupancy. We think oil price pressure should ease in 2H26. Ticker Rec TP (Bt) TSR (23-Jun)

• Upgrade CENTEL to Outperform on resilient business mix, but AOT OP 58 65.0 13%

downgrade AWC to Neutral on Bangkok exposure. Pecking order: AOT > CENTEL N → OP 35.5 44 → 40 15%

CENTEL > ERW > AWC.

ERW OP 2.88 5.6 → 3.3 17%

AWC OP → N 2.56 4.7 → 2.4 -5%

• Stronger-than-expected sector performance despite Middle East

tensions: Hotel operators delivered better-than-expected RevPAR Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2026

growth in April-May despite initial concerns over Middle East tensions.

Figure 2 - We expect 34 million

RevPAR growth remained positive for all listed operators in our coverage, tourist arrivals in 2026E

supported by higher occupancy particularly from a recovery in the

number of Chinese tourists and last-minute bookings. Easing safety Millions45 International Tourist arrivals

concern among Chinese tourists helped offset weakness from Europe 40

10.5 11.0 6.7 4.5 5.7 and the Middle East. 3530 9.8

25 3.5 Þ However, we remain cautious on Bangkok hotels’ pricing power and 8.8

profitability. Hotel revenue was driven largely by higher occupancy, 15 28.8 28.5 28.2

24.5 10 23.8 25.6 27.7 28.8 0.3 though pricing power remained weak, particularly for Bangkok hotels,