Asia Oil Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Oil Strategy

Macquarie Equity Research Asia Oil Strategy

Executive Summary

• Reopening is not a blanket unwind; sequencing matters. The SoH disruption reflects

layered policy responses on a physical shock, not a single-cycle event. These measures are

unlikely to reverse symmetrically. We expect a sequenced unwind: policy distortions first,

then physical tightness, with security premia last. Focusing solely on crude may understate

dispersion in timing and market clearing across regions.

• Intervention risk mispriced; scope for tactical catch-up. Valuation gaps reflect

uncertainty around policy reversal rather than fundamentals. Markets appear to price

temporary interventions as structural. As controls ease, Thai and Chinese refiners (TOP,

Sinopec-H) could see a catch-up. This remains tactical: elevated all-in costs (crude premia,

freight, insurance) likely persist into 2Q–3Q26 given procurement lags. We would look

through near-term cost pressure, with re-rating following inventory normalisation.

• Trade the lag.

Þ Oil retailers will likely see margins expand as pump prices adjust more slowly than

crude. Thailand may prioritise rebuilding its Bt56bn oil fund deficit (PTTOR), while India's

integrated names (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) retain marketing margins (assuming no immediate

increase in excise taxes). Retailers have historically seen earnings normalise quickly post-

crisis.

Þ The chemical balance is fragile as the supply restraints (naphtha-based players reluctant

to restart plants amid feedstock volatility and cautious demand) continue to support

spreads. Structurally, the sector remains weak, though the resumption of supply from

naphtha-based players could see spreads undershoot, surprising the market. We see