Semi Cap: Raising Estimates (Again); ASML Catch-Up Trade? Scenario Analysis & More

Research evidence excerpt

Semi Cap: Raising Estimates (Again); ASML Catch-Up Trade? Scenario Analysis & More

Equity Research

Price Target Change — June 22, 2026

Semiconductor Capital Equipment

Semi Cap: Raising Estimates (Again); ASML

Catch-Up Trade? Scenario Analysis & More

Our Call Joe Quatrochi, CFA

We expect cont'd positive semi cap results in 2Q26 & raise our ests to above Street. While Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Joe.Quatrochi@wellsfargo.com | 314-875-2055

AMAT remains our top pick, we cont to think ASML's YTD u/p offers an interesting catch-

Travis Poulinup trade as we expect results to highlight accel'ing demand / visibility

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Travis.Poulin@wellsfargo.com | 617-603-4263

Sentiment Check = Positive. Despite recent moves in shares, investors remain positive

on semi cap stocks: 1) Pref rank order remains: AMAT, LRCX, ASML, KLAC. However,

ASML convos have been increasing, in part given relative share u/p. 2) 2027 buyside WFE

est $185B-$195B w/ some at $200B; 2028 +HSD% y/y. 3) Terafab - Increasing topic of

discussion - we think most view as more of a material oppy looking into 2029 / 2030;

potential driver that sustains semi cap cycle?

Raising WFE Estimates (Again). We again raise our forecast w/ the most meaningful

updates driven by leading edge foundry / logic & DRAM. We now estimate 2027 WFE at

~$190B (vs prior ~$180B), while we increase our 2028 est to $216B (vs prior $191B).

We expect Lam & KLA to modestly increase their 2026 WFE outlook vs. prior ~$140B

& provide increasingly positive 2027 commentary given continued improvements in

demand visibility - we'd also be interested in 2028 thoughts given AMAT's confidence

Wells Fargo Scenario Analysis; Raising Estimates to Above Consensus. With investor