North America Airlines: 2Q26, Preview

Research evidence excerpt

North America Airlines: 2Q26, Preview

Equity Research

25 June 2026

North America Airlines

2Q26, Preview

Airlines will likely guide incrementally higher unit revenues in

the third quarter, supporting a stronger margin outlook in

2027, especially if energy prices continue trending lower; we North America Airlines POSITIVE

Unchangedsee the strongest outlooks and potential share upside this

quarter for United and, controversially, Southwest. North America Airlines

Brandon R. Oglenski

+1 212 526 8903

We will host a group conference call today, June 25, at 11AM ET; please click here to register. We brandon.oglenski@barclays.com

will also host a group investor lunch in NYC on Wednesday, July 8 at 12PM ET; please reach out BCI, US

to your sales representative if interested. Eric Morgan, CFA

+1 212 526 9642

Peace in the Middle East has revived interest in US airline equities as robust travel demand eric.morgan@barclays.com

meets flat industry capacity growth to support significant yield expansion for all carriers. BCI, US

However, while energy prices have come down in recent weeks, refining margins for jet fuel

remain higher relative to pre-war levels, suggesting earnings outlooks from many airlines could

still come below what we believe to be a stale consensus for the back half of 2026. For most

investors we think this earnings dynamic is well understood, with much greater attention being

paid to incremental revenue guidance and demand commentary. To that end, nearly all US

airlines have pointed to continued strength in forward bookings despite higher fares and have

also highlighted more sustainable increases in bag fees as supporting higher yields into the

third quarter. Importantly, demand strength is noted across nearly all geographies and travel