TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

Global Research SECTOR NOTE

June 23, 2026 TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

■Consumer: Airlines

Tom Fitzgerald, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1304 Systemwide US capacity is scheduled to shrink 0.3% y/y in 3Q26, with domestic up 0.3% and international down 1.8%.

tom.fitzgerald@tdsecurities.com US airlines continue to cut supply from forward schedules in response to higher fuel prices, with investors laser focused

on potential cracks in air travel demand. Industry margin laggards and highly leveraged airlines will be under the most

pressure to prune unprofitable flying.

Since our last report, most airlines made cuts to their 3Q schedules. Frontier -1.2pts, JetBlue -0.3pts, and Southwest -0.2pts

made the most cuts. We continue to see strong y/y price increases in both domestic and international markets (see p4

here). Spirit's demise (see notes here and here) should further raise the floor on economy fares.

Investors are watching for how well airlines can maintain higher air fares as fuel prices ease.

We continue to view United, Delta, and American as best positioned to produce healthy RASM given their exposure to

corporate, premium and international, as well as the high floor provided by loyalty revenues. We also rate shares of Alaska

(see recent SMIDcap sweetheart note here) and Southwest as Buy-rated (see recap of recent meetings with management in

Canada here).

Systemwide US capacity is scheduled to shrink 0.3% y/y in 3Q26, with domestic up 0.3% and international down 1.8% (see

p. 3–5). Capacity growth exhibits across airlines and markets follow on p.3-73.

Legacy carriers are scheduled to grow 3Q26 capacity by 2.1% y/y, with domestic up 3.8% and international down 0.4%.

American will see the most growth at ORD (+12%), LGA (+11%), and JFK (+8%).