Morning Call - Canada - Jun 23 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Call - Canada - Jun 23 2026

C$15,857 Accretion Math Is Challenging, but Economics Improve Over Time: While not immediately

Enterprise Value C$20,217.0 accretive on a headline EBITDA basis, the ~11.0x multiple reflects build/replacement cost

(MM):

and includes ~$250 million of remaining Zone 4 capital. That said, accretion math is more

Dividend: C$2.14

favorable on a DCF basis given low maintenance capital and tax pools. We estimate ~30%

Yield: 3.8%

excess capacity beyond contracted volumes into the 2030s provides upside over time, with

General: Market cap, net debt and EV contemplate Plains

transaction financing supporting modest per-share growth.

FY 2025A 2026E 2027E Acquisition Aligned with Our Broader Industry Growth Thesis: Consistent with our Ahead

(Dec)

of the Curve: Energy Opportunity Amid Global Conflict: Can Canada Meet the Moment?, the

Adj. EBITDA ($mm)

transaction reinforces our view that Canadian midstream growth will be driven by ~3–5% basin

Q1 C$298.4 C$203.1A C$602.8

growth and incremental brownfield expansion. KAPS is well positioned to capture rising NGL

Prior Q1 - - C$582.0

throughput, with debottlenecking and optimization supporting capital-efficient growth.

Q2 C$251.6 C$341.4 C$481.1

Estimate Changes Reflect Higher Growth and Capital Intensity: Our revised estimatesPrior Q2 - - C$460.3

incorporate a ~1% increase to Keyera’s fee-based EBITDA/share CAGR through 2027, assuming

Q3 C$280.6 C$486.5 C$485.4

performance at the high end of its 2027–2029 outlook. We raise 2026 and 2027 capital

Prior Q3 - C$466.4 C$455.6

spending by $100 million and $75 million, respectively, reflecting inclusion of Stonepeak’s

Q4 C$301.1 C$585.6 C$513.0

share of KAPS Zone 4, with 2026 growth capital now guided to $650–$725 million.

Prior Q4 - C$564.9 C$487.4