China Autos & Shared Mobility: Demand floor in place, rebound catalysts arrive later

Research evidence excerpt

China Autos & Shared Mobility: Demand floor in place, rebound catalysts arrive later

Idea

June 25, 2026 07:47 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Tim Hsiao

Equity Analyst

Demand floor in place, rebound Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.comPeggy Wang +852 2848-1982

Research Associate

Peggy.Pc.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3934

catalysts arrive later Shelley Wang, CFA

Shelley.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0047

Takeaways from recent channel checks and industry calls Joey Xu, CFA

suggest that auto sales have likely found a floor, but have yet to EquityJoey.Xu@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 3963-0337

regain momentum, with demand still conspicuously weak. Next

meaningful window appears in Aug–Sept, when new model

cycles, seasonal factors, and geopolitical dynamics converge.

As the sector closes out a challenging 2Q, investor conversations indicate that

China Autos & Shared Mobility

sentiment is worse than underlying reality. Persistent growth concerns, coupled

Asia Pacific

with a lack of near-term earnings catalysts, continue to limit bottom-up conviction. Industry View In-Line

At the same time, the ongoing liquidity drain toward regional AI/tech plays has

distorted sector discussions, with most dialogues remaining at a high-level rather

than focusing on company fundamentals (e.g., BYD, Geely, NIO, XPeng, Fuyao).

The market increasingly reflects a binary divide between AI and everything else

(including autos). That said, we believe this pessimism is setting up potential

trading opportunities in 2H, with a window likely emerging in mid-3Q, supported by

low base effects, above-seasonal demand underpinned by solid order books, policy-

driven consumption support, and an early ramp in new launches from late July.