European Metals & Mining Tracker: Plugged-In Premia

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: Plugged-In Premia

Idea

June 25, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Plugged-In Premia Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

How the oil shock has revived Europe’s EV shift Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: Jan-May YtD European Car Registrations are pointing to a steep Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

market share shift in favour of BEV/Hybrids

Research Associate

300,000 40% Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

31% 30% Brian Morgan 200,000

25% Equity Analyst

20% Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

100,000

11% 10% Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

5% Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

0 0% Commodities Strategist

Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

-10%

-100,000 Ben Kelson

-17% -17% Research Associate

YoY -20% Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392 -24%

-200,000 Registrations YtD -30% Mining 101 of

#

-300,000 -40% Mining & Steel Equities

BATTERY PLUG-IN HYBRID OTHERS PETROL DIESEL TOTAL Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

ELECTRIC HYBRID ELECTRIC

Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, ACEA Commodity Price Signals

Commodity Price ForecastOil shock adds momentum to Europe’s electrification mix shift. The Middle East

conflict and associated oil-price shock have added a cyclical tailwind to an already

visible shift in Europe’s auto market toward electrified powertrains. In EU+EFTA+UK,

Jan-May YtD BEV registrations are up +31% YoY, plug-in hybrids +25% and hybrids

+11%, while petrol and diesel registrations are down 17% each.