Amazon.com State of US E-Commerce: AMZN ~47% Online Share & Largest US Retailer; Digital Penetration Increase From Mid-20’s% to 40%+ Possible Long-Term; Reiterate AMZN Overweight & $330 PT

Research evidence excerpt

Amazon.com State of US E-Commerce: AMZN ~47% Online Share & Largest US Retailer; Digital Penetration Increase From Mid-20’s% to 40%+ Possible Long-Term; Reiterate AMZN Overweight & $330 PT

oods Daily

Shop. However, AMZN is shuttering Go & Fresh physical stores and remains focused on

delivering a distinctive customer experience with improved unit economics. With

Grocery representing ~33% of total US Adj. Retail Sales, but only ~13% penetrated

online, we expect Amazon to continue to invest in its Grocery offerings. We estimate

that AMZN has ~24% share of US online grocery sales, below WMT at ~36% but

above CART at ~17%. We estimate that increasing AMZN’s share from ~24% to

~30% would represent $15B+ US online grocery GMV.

• Amazon’s Leading Delivery Speeds & Close Proximity to the Consumer = Agentic

Advantage. Agentic commerce will drive even greater emphasis on retailer selection,

pricing, & shipping speed as AI/LLMs orchestrate tasks and suggest products that best

fit a query. Accordingly, retailers will win the agentic “buy box” by providing vast

selection, competitive pricing, & fast delivery speeds, which we believe will translate to

a greater emphasis on customer satisfaction scores as retailers’ optimize agentic

commerce strategies. We believe Amazon delivers unparalleled scale & logistics

capabilities that would be very difficult for any company to replicate, which should

help AMZN rank highly across agentic commerce & virtually every shopping

channel. AMZN delivered 13B+ items SD1D globally in 2025, including 8B+ for US

Prime members (30%+ Y/Y). AMZN also operates 85+ SSD FCs that carry AMZN’s top

90k SKUs and AMZN has delivered 500M+ SD units YTD in 2026. AMZN increased

the number of items delivered in the US same day grew ~70% Y/Y across AMZN’s