AMZN Deep Dive: Amazon Leo - Satellite Scale, Revenue, OI vs. Starlink

Research evidence excerpt

AMZN Deep Dive: Amazon Leo - Satellite Scale, Revenue, OI vs. Starlink

June 30, 2026

Section I: Scale and Timeline of Satellite Launches

We estimate Amazon Leo will have launched over 4,400 satellites, resulting in over 3,100 operational

satellites by 2030, up from launching ~800 this year (Exhibit 3). This compares to Starlink satellites at 32K

by 2030, up from estimated 14K this year. Our 2030 estimate is modestly ahead of FCC’s requirement to have

half of the 7,727 planned constellation of low orbit satellites launched by February 10th, 2032, and the remaining

half by February 10th, 2035.

Exhibit 2: Satellites Launched Per Year (000s) Exhibit 3: Cumulative Satellites Launched (000s)

Source: Wolfe Research, Amazon, SpaceX Source: Wolfe Research, Amazon, SpaceX

YTD launches: As of June 17th, Starlink has launched over 12,400 satellites with over 1,500 launched in

2026 YTD compared to Amazon Leo’s 367 total launched satellites with 187 YTD in 2026. Amazon’s 13

launches to-date (average of 28 satellites per launch) consist of 7 launches with Boeing and Lockheed Martin’s

United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas rockets, 3 SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets, and 3 Arianespace rockets.

Exhibit 4: Satellites Launched by Quarter

Satellites Launched Starlink Leo

Q2:26 623 155

Q1:26 894 32

Q4:25 963 51

Q3:25 728 75

Q2:25 938 54

Q1:25 540 --

Source: Wolfe Research, Amazon, SpaceX

Amazon Leo is planning more than 20 launches in 2026, accelerating to more than 30 planned launches

in 2027. If Amazon were to maintain 2027’s cadence of 30 launches per year with approximately 30 satellites

per launch, then the business would track ahead of its FCC requirements and reach its planned 7,727 launched

satellites in 2034, a year ahead of the FCC deadline.