Utilities (AO) | Key messages from the data-centre and electrification webinar

Research evidence excerpt

Utilities (AO) | Key messages from the data-centre and electrification webinar

in 2024, reaching USD400bn

in 2024 and expected to accelerate further to USD600-725bn in 2026. This is among the largest capex cycles in modern industry

with an estimated USD3tn cumulative capex expected from 2025 29.

Worldwide, data-centre electricity demand represented 415TWh or 1.5% or 1.5% of the world's electricity. This is expected to

accelerate to 945TWh (the size of Japan's demand) and to reach 1,200TWh by 2035 (the size of India's demand).

The US current electricity DC demand is c.185TWh, and is expected to reach 425TWh by 2030, which would imply that US data-

centre demand could exceed all energy-intensive manufacturing combined by 2030. 5 regional clusters represent c.50% of

capacity.

The US is the global leader in cloud & AI innovation, but leadership is under strain as grid lead times are 4-8 years for new lines,

and transformer lead times have doubled in 3 years.

China's rise is more deeply integrated into the energy system, both at the industrial and energy policy levels. DC electricity

demand represented 104TWh in 2024 and is expected to increase to 277TWh by 2030. Grid integration is planned, not queued,

allowing a growing digital self-sufficiency.

Headline request volumes overstate reality; deliverable capacity is expected to be a fraction of it, impacted by grid connections,

equipment and project readiness. Historically, only 1 in 5 projects ever gets built (20%).

Contracts are evolving towards 15-20 year tenors, with 24/7 carbon-free matching, backed by hybrid PPAs + behind-the-meter +

storage capacity. Latest contracts seen around c.USD62/MWh level. US contracts focused more on bring your own power +