Utilities (AO) | FER-X, green light from the EU Commission

Research evidence excerpt

Utilities (AO) | FER-X, green light from the EU Commission

News comment

Release date: 08 June 2026

Emanuele Oggioni

Equity Research Analyst

+39 02 8550 7220

Utilities eoggioni@keplercheuvreux.com

Italy

FER-X, green light from the EU Commission

Key points:

The European Commission has given its long-awaited green light to the FER-X scheme for an additional 37.15 GW of renewable

capacity, equivalent to approximately 48% of Italy's current renewable installed base.

The aid scheme is expected to be worth up to EUR23bn overall, although the actual net support could be "significantly lower in

the event of higher-than-expected market prices."

This scheme will significantly contribute to the country's goal of achieving 39.4% of gross final electricity consumption from

renewables by 2030 and will reduce electricity prices. The most potential beneficiaries are the pure renewable generation

companies such as ERG and Alerion, both rated Buy.

Italy gets the approval of the final scheme for the renewable auctions

capacity, equivalent to approximately 48% of Italy's current renewable installed base, while estimates previously released

indicated 26 GW would be auctioned, including 10 GW of photovoltaic and 16 GW of wind power. The difference could be related

to plants under 1 MW (including hydroelectric, for example), which do not participate in the auctions, with strike prices set

administratively by ARERA.

We recall that the auctions take the form of variable payments under 20-year, two-way contracts for difference (CFDs). These

contracts provide a bonus for each kWh of electricity generated and fed into the grid, based on a so-called strike price. If

electricity market prices are lower than this price, the State will pay the difference. If they are higher, the companies will