Phillips 66 (PSX) Management Dinner Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Phillips 66 (PSX) Management Dinner Takeaways

Flash Note Energy | Refining & Marketing

June 23, 2026

Phillips 66 Stephen Richardson Chai Zhao, CFA 212-446-5639 646-321-3097

PSX | $168.41 stephen.richardson@evercoreisi.com chai.zhao@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $195.00

Commentary

Higher For Longer Product Cracks Underpin Cross-Segment Earnings Upside

Our central takeaway from dinner with Phillips 66 (PSX) management is that the setup favors earnings upside across all five

segments, namely Refining, Midstream, Marketing and Specialties, Renewable Fuels, and Chemicals. We hosted CEO Lashier,

CFO Mitchell, & IRO Maher for an investor dinner in NYC yesterday evening. The core take is product cracks stay higher for longer.

Even if crude supply proves uneven, refined products remain structurally tight, underpinned by depleted inventories, resilient global

demand, and lasting damage to global refining, petrochemical, and logistics infrastructure. We believe PSX is well positioned to

monetize the dislocation through its commercial and trading engine, notably leveraging Jones Act waivers and a pre-positioned

chartered tanker fleet to capture opportunities in 2Q. Chemicals is a key swing factor likely to surprise vs. street, with constructive

cost-curve dynamics and the Golden Triangle ramp set against a still oversupplied market buoyed by continued outages. We see

upside across PSX segments with opportunities to highlight the value of integration as opportunities arise over the balance of

2026+.

Positive Revisions Ahead If Indicator Margins Hold. We have marked to market our model for 2Q actuals (but our published

estimates remain unchanged at this time). Based on PSX's quarter-to-date indicator updates (available from the company website),