Phillips 66 (PSX): Time with Mgmt

Research evidence excerpt

Phillips 66 (PSX): Time with Mgmt

is uniquely positioned, with ~70%

medium/heavy sour capacity. Mgmt reiterated that every ~$1/bbl widening in WTI/WCS spreads

= ~$140mm incremental EBITDA. A distinct advantage for PSX is that it buys crude directly from

Venezuela FOB (rather than paying a 3rd party for delivery), effectively lowering crude costs and/or

providing marketing optionality. Lake Charles and Sweeny can run ~250kbpd of Venezuelan crude

with no incremental capex; PSX needs ~$1.50-2/bbl discount to WCS to be agnostic between the

two grades. WRB integration drives the refining cost target of $5.50/bbl by YE27, with $1/bbl already

removed. This remains a focus of mgmt and the market. PSX has been deliberately expanding

its footprint to where incremental demand is coming from, in particular, aggressively growing NGL

reach into global markets, given that US NGLs need export outlets. On M&A, PSX has streamlined its

portfolio and likes its current footprint; incremental capacity would need to connect to the existing

system with a bias toward the Central Corridor/Gulf Coast; PSX remains focused on improving

ROCE.

Midstream & Marketing. The Permian is increasingly gassy; PSX views rising NGL volumes as a

competitive advantage. PSX gathers ~50% of Permian volumes. The $4.5bn midstream EBITDA

target for 2027 reflects projects already underway. Marketing contributes ~15% of EBITDA which

is a recurring investor focus on earnings quality.

Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst

+1 (212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com

Chemicals: Trough Pulled Forward. Pre-conflict, management expected the downturn until '30, but

recent events accelerated it. Pre-Iran oversupply of ~20mm tons pa still requires rationalization to Emma Schwartz * | Equity Analyst

restore mid-cycle levels.