Global Pharmaceuticals "US Pharma Rebates: 2026 Commercial insights" Weston

Research evidence excerpt

Global Pharmaceuticals "US Pharma Rebates: 2026 Commercial insights" Weston

a period of

Analyst

growth. However this reflects mix due to generic entries, rather than underlying dina.elmonshed@ubs.com

PBM rebate dynamics (key on-market drugs actually show increasing rebates). +1-212-649 8276

GTN in Obesity is trending higher following 2026 net price cuts.

Xian Deng, PhD, CFA

We see a correlation between higher portfolio uniqueness and lower Analyst

rebates. We define a drug as unique if there is a maximum of one other xian.deng@ubs.com

competing product with similar mode of action. Leveraging our UBS Pharma +44-20-7901 6285

Values database we see improving uniqueness for AZN / BAY / BMY / JNJ / MRK, Nusrat Hossain

which we believe positions these companies well to defend against rebate Associate Analyst

pressure. We see falling uniqueness for NOVO, LLY, and to a lesser extent GSK. nusrat.hossain@ubs.com

+44-20-7883 1586

Therapy area mix shift can also provide insights on future rebate

pressures. We map current & future therapy area mix to see if portfolios are

shifting to higher/lower rebate areas. Mix shift appears to favour JNJ / BMY /

NOVN / PFE / AZN, vs potential future higher rebates for ROG / LLY.

Rebate walls may continue to benefit select companies. At scale, access-

driven rebates favour large incumbents by raising the cost to payers of switching

share to new entrants. Bundling across drugs within a therapy area supports share

defence and follow-on launch access. We see ABBV / BMY / JNJ / SAN as

beneficiaries, while BAY / UCB may face headwinds from competitor rebate walls.

PBMs: Upcoming sector patent cliff and reforms add uncertainty. The sector

faces a meaningful patent cliff in the early 2030s. This likely reduces PBM rebate