Berkeley Group (AO) | Hold | Solid volume delivery and cash beat in FY26

Research evidence excerpt

Berkeley Group (AO) | Hold | Solid volume delivery and cash beat in FY26

Berkeley Group Hold | Target Price: 3900p

Company description Management

Established in 1976, the Berkeley Group is a UK property developers, renowned Michael Dobson, Chairman

for developing brownfield projects (homes and communities) in London and the Rob Perrins, CEO

South East of England, which are among the least affordable areas in the Richard Stearn, CFO

country. While historically its portfolio focused on premium residential Key shareholders

developments, the subdued buyer demand has led the company to launch a BTR Free float 100.00%

platform to support housing delivery while meeting underlying demand. Saad Investment Co. 29.40%

Lloys TSB 10.01%

Egerton Capital 5.12%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Targeted government initiatives aimed at tackling both planning We value Berkeley by means of a 2027-32 DCF.

and demand constraints should improve the sector's outlook. We apply a perpetual growth rate of 2%.

Berkeley's exposure to less affordable areas may limit its ability Risks to our rating

to capitalise on the expected rebound in private market activity. Government not being able to implement its key initiatives.

We expect the company to distribute attractive shareholder Stronger-than-expected buyers' demand in London and the

returns combining dividends and buybacks. South East.

Catalysts Higher-than-expected mortgage rates in the long-term.

Successful implementation of government initiatives resulting

in volume and ASP growth.

Modest earnings growth.

Solid cash generation and attractive shareholders'

remuneration.

Key data charts

Price performance Sales split by region Sales split by division

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

High margins. Planning bottlenecks.