May 2026 In Situ Data Released – CVE's Sunrise & Christina Lake Y/Y Standouts

Research evidence excerpt

May 2026 In Situ Data Released – CVE's Sunrise & Christina Lake Y/Y Standouts

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: INDUSTRY UPDATE

June 22, 2026

■Energy Producers - Seniors & Integrateds May 2026 In Situ Data Released – CVE's

Sunrise & Christina Lake Y/Y Standouts

Menno Hulshof, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

403 299 8658

AB May in-situ prod’n fell 6.7% m/m to 1,568 mbbl/d, largely reflecting spring turnaround

menno.hulshof@tdsecurities.com

activity. CVE was a clear exception, with Sunrise and Christina Lake (CL) reaching new highs;

Taylor Kent^ Sunrise is now up ~35% y/y and CL ~40% (the latter reflecting the MEG acquisition). A roughly

403 299 3272 one-week CL cogen outage likely created a modest headwind for June prod’n, but we expect

taylor.kent@tdsecurities.com

the impact to be immaterial.

Jeremy De Souza, CPA^

403 292 1212 In the table below (Figure 1), we summarize the performance of the major AB in-situ oil sands

jeremy.desouza@tdsecurities.com projects for May 2026, where aggregate prod’n across tracked projects fell 6.7% m/m as

spring maintenance continued.

In this note, we profile CVE:

■CVE’s thermal prod’n rose in May given little in the way of planned TAR activity, with Sunrise

prod’n increasing 11.2% m/m to ~69 mbbl/d as development advances on the eastern

portion of the lease, while Christina Lake prod’n reached ~378 mbbl/d—both representing

new production records. On a y/y basis, Sunrise prod’n is up ~35% and Christina Lake ~40%

(the latter reflecting the MEG acquisition).

❍Total CVE thermal prod’n averaged ~670 mbbl/d in May, building momentum into 2Q/26

reporting.

■On a more negative note, public data indicates that the smaller of CVE’s two Christina Lake

cogeneration facilities was operating at ~50% of capacity in early June following weather-