Q4 First Look: Fuel Supply Chain Investments Offer Big Returns Amid Volatility

Research evidence excerpt

Q4 First Look: Fuel Supply Chain Investments Offer Big Returns Amid Volatility

Consumer Staples

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: EARNINGS UPDATE

June 22, 2026

Price: C$82.26 (06/22/2026) Q4 First Look: Fuel Supply Chain Investments

Price Target: C$100.00 Offer Big Returns Amid Volatility

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 59/100

Michael Van Aelst, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

514 289 0518

A 35% cons EPS beat on record fuel margins highlights how larger players like ATD can

michael.vanaelst@tdsecurities.com

materially outperform during periods of fuel price volatility, particularly after significant supply

Derek J. Lessard^ chain investments. U.S. SSSG (and its outperformance vs. the industry) has also accelerated

514 289 0384 for 4 straight qtrs without sacrificing GM%. Combined with its reasonable valuation, we expect

derek.lessard@tdsecurities.com

ATD shares to react well.

Evan Frantzeskos, CFA^

514 985 2191 Event

evan.frantzeskos@tdsecurities.com ■EPS of $0.73 was +59%y/y and far above TD Cowen/cons of $0.58/$0.54; the 35%

consensus EPS beat stemmed from fuel margin outperformance across all geographies and

Key Data

U.S. in-store execution where merchandise SSSG accelerated to 3.4% — beating our/consSymbol TSX: ATD-T

estimates of 3.0%/2.5% — while expanding GM% by 50bps. No indication of exit run-rates

Market Cap C$75.5B

was provided.

Impact: POSITIVE

■Fuel margins were exceptionally strong across the board, hitting record highs in all three

geographies and outperforming what OPIS numbers implied for the U.S. by ~30%. As

discussed in our preview note, a fuel margin beat doesn't normally result in the same degree

of share price lift, but this time could be different as it offers proof that past investments