ATD: Motoring along: ATD closes F26 with a strong print, reiterating constructive view PT to $106 (+$2)

Research evidence excerpt

ATD: Motoring along: ATD closes F26 with a strong print, reiterating constructive view PT to $106 (+$2)

336.1

$$. Adjusted EBITDA $1.614 B, +33% Y/Y and 22% above forecast, with Revenue 72,856.8 76,506.6 94,919.5 88,356.2

normalized opex growth well controlled at +2.6% (details Ex. 1-3). Prev. 76,177.3 89,255.2 84,538.8

EPS, Ops Diluted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ATD US backcourt KPI's lag CASY but handily outpace closest peer 7- 2026 0.78A 0.78A 0.81A 0.73A

Eleven and MUSA despite the latter's earlier quarter-end; while gas Prev. 0.51E

volumes lagged both CASY and MUSA, gas margins higher than both, 2027 0.88E 0.84E 0.84E 0.65E

underscoring our thesis that valuation/gap to publicly-traded peers is Prev. 0.85E 0.83E 0.85E 0.61E 2028 0.98E 0.97E 0.98E 0.75E

excessive: 4th consecutive Q of accelerating SSS in US +3.4% a jerky Prev. 0.97E 0.95E 0.97E 0.70E

above F/C +2.5%, prior Q 2.8%. Release calls out nicotine and packaged EBITDA

beverages. SSS above forecast in Europe, Canada in-line. Fuel price volatility 2026 1,614.8A 1,620.1A 1,874.7A 1,613.7A

and initiatives around fuel supply chain optimization and execution drove Prev. 1,325.5E

2027 1,759.3E 1,696.5E 1,940.3E 1,498.0E strong forecourt GP$$ despite pressure on gas volumes across regions. Prev. 1,725.3E 1,681.1E 1,943.5E 1,445.2E

2028 1,881.4E 1,847.5E 2,115.4E 1,622.1E

B/S, CF strong: Leverage 1.99x; no activity on NCIB Q4, F26 repurchased 30 Prev. 1,864.4E 1,819.9E 2,096.3E 1,555.5E

MM shares (~3.2% of total) for $1.6B. F27E-F28E incorporates close to $5B

NCIB. ROE Q4 20.2%/ROCE 13.7%, +130 bps sequentially. AllPricedmarketas ofdatapriorintradingCAD; allday'sfinancialmarketdataclose,in USD;EST dividends(unless otherwisepaid in CAD.noted).

Expected focus for 8:00AM conference call: i) cadence of inside store