May '26 Hospital Survey: Flat Revenue Growth YTY, +1.0% Ex-Calendar Impact

Research evidence excerpt

May '26 Hospital Survey: Flat Revenue Growth YTY, +1.0% Ex-Calendar Impact

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 22, 2026

■Health Care Facilities & Services May '26 Hospital Survey: Flat Revenue Growth

YTY, +1.0% Ex-Calendar Impact

Ryan Langston THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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May '26 hospital revenue was flat yty (+1.0% calendar adj). May results are below 1Q26's

ryan.langston@tdsecurities.com

+2.2% average and April's +3.7%. FL's DPP was approved and represents a material OOP

William Spivack benefit in 2Q26. Despite the positive development, we expect continued scrutiny on "core"

202 868 5302 growth. Unless revenue growth accelerates meaningfully in June, we see risk to hospitals'

william.spivack@tdsecurities.com

2Q26 consensus estimates (ex-FL DPP).

Christian Borgmeyer, CFA

646 562 1430 May 2026 Results - Hospital revenue growth in May was flat yty, a sequential deceleration

christian.borgmeyer@tdsecurities.com of -370bps vs April. We estimate May had a -1.0% yty seasonal calendar headwind, such that

Gary Taylor adjusted revenue growth was +1.0%.

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Survey Responders Suggest Surgical Volume Trends Are Weaker - We asked hospitals if their

gary.taylor@tdsecurities.com

surgical volumes recently trended weaker, similar, or stronger. The overwhelming majority of

responses (>90%) indicated weaker surgical volumes in May, which we see as consistent with

ARDT (uncovered, $8) commentary in early June.

2nd Annual Hospital Summit Commentary Mixed - One large health system executive pointed

to an improving trajectory into 2Q26 (including surgical, though seeing shift from IP to OP),

supported by indications related to physician office visits and diagnostics. We note this health