TURKIYE : Navigating for a limited upside

Research evidence excerpt

TURKIYE : Navigating for a limited upside

EQUITIES

TURKIYE

Navigating for a limited upside

Positive momentum to continue, but with limited upsides22 JUNE 2026

Sector Research Report So far, 2026 has been a strong year for emerging market equities, with MSCI Turkey gaining 23% in

Production time: 16:53 (London time) USD terms, compared to 27% in MSCI EM, 12% in Poland, 6.2% in Saudi Arabia and a 5.2% drop

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities in South Africa. The US-Iran war in March took its toll on equities and resulted in muted performance.

Okan Ertem However, CBRT’s strong intervention in FX markets limited FX volatility. Moreover, government

TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler1 subsidies for fuel prices limited the impact of the sharp increase in the cost of energy to businesses.+90 (216) 636 45 35

okan.ertem@tebyatirim.com.tr Regional disputes resulted in force majeure in the Middle East and Asian refineries and

petrochemicals. However, Turkish refineries, petrochemical sector, iron and steel, and fertiliserErdem Kayli

TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler1 suppliers were all resilient to supply shock in the region thanks to their limited reliance on energy and

(+90) 216 636 4529 commodity imports from the Middle East. Some Turkish conglomerates also benefited from the

erdem.kayli@tebyatirim.com.tr geopolitical developments on account of being sole supplier of certain commodities for the region.

Evren Gezer

TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler1 US-Iran war pushed energy costs, inflation and rate expectations, limiting upside potential

(+90) 216 636 4533 Despite strong Turkish economic resilience and government subsidies, rising energy costs passed

evren.gezer@tebyatirim.com.tr

through to CPI. Thus, the upside revision to year-end CPI and rate forecasts by our Markets360 team