AYVENS (+) : From surplus capital to enhanced shareholder returns

Research evidence excerpt

AYVENS (+) : From surplus capital to enhanced shareholder returns

EQUITIES

BUSINESS SERVICES

AYVENS OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR11.7  TARGET PRICE EUR14 (UPSIDE 19%) TARGET 4%PRICE EPS-3%26e EPS-3%27e

From surplus capital to enhanced shareholder returns

In 2026, AYV should be able to deliver another round of extraordinary cash returns to shareholders as22 JUNE 2026

Securities Research Report 1) its asset base is set to remain largely stable reflecting continued exit from loss making contracts, 2)

Production time: 05:23* (London time)

its earnings should grow double digit thanks to lower cost-income. Overall, we expect excess capital

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to translate into EUR1bn+ total shareholder returns, equating to a 12% yield. O/P reiterated.

Mourad Lahmidi

BNP Paribas SA Market consolidation to lift barriers to entry(+33) 1 42 99 50 63

mourad.lahmidi@bnpparibas.com The recent announcement of the Arval-Athlon deal, creating a number 2 player behind AYVENS, is

likely to lift barriers to entry in the European full-service leasing market. Post deal, AYVENS and

Arval will have a combined purchasing power equivalent to c.8% to 10% of EU vehicle production

as well as superior funding access, tech spend and residual value management. This should make

it increasingly difficult for smaller players to compete and likely drive further consolidation.

Residual value reset in progress

The reset in residual values seems to have mostly played out in key markets but its impact on

AYVENS earnings should be felt through 2027 according to our estimates due to the higher share

of alternative engines in the mix of vehicles sold. That said, the UCS income line now accounts for

a minor share of gross operating income (c.6% in 2026e vs. 28% in 2022) which makes group