Jumbo Interactive Ltd: Wider Range of Outcomes

Research evidence excerpt

Jumbo Interactive Ltd: Wider Range of Outcomes

Idea

June 24, 2026 08:51 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MJumbo Interactive Ltd | Asia Pacific James Bales

Equity Analyst

Wider Range of Outcomes James.Bales@morganstanley.comChenny Wang, CFA +61 2 9770-1603

What’s Changed Chenny.Wang@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9227

Edward Xu

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (JIN.AX) From To Research Associate

Rating Overweight Equal-weight Edward.Xu@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1181

Price Target A$14.50 A$8.40

Weaker jackpot activity drives earnings downgrades, while UK

regulatory uncertainty and TLC contract risk widen the range of

potential outcomes. Despite trading at a trough multiple, we see

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (JIN.AX, JIN AU)

limited scope for a re-rating until organic growth improves and

Australia Emerging Companies | Australia

key overhangs are resolved. Move to EW. Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Move to EW: We lower earnings expectations and see limited scope for a near-term Price target A$8.40

Up/downside to price target (%) 14

re-rating on the basis of 1) UK regulatory developments; and 2) the upcoming TLC Shr price, close (Jun 24, 2026) A$7.36

contract renegotiation. We remain positive on Jumbo's capital-light model and long- 52-Week Range A$13.14-6.92

Mkt cap, curr (mn) A$466

term digital penetration story, but the economics of domestic customer EV, curr (mn) A$387

(re)acquisition have softened. While jackpot momentum may improve, TLC’s game Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

refresh and off-cycle price increase back in November barely moved the needle and EPS (A$)** 0.67 0.55 0.70 0.81

limits the potential for near-term TTV upside. In our view, this warrants a wider Prior EPS (A$)** - 0.76 1.05 1.21

Revenue, net (A$ mn) 145 186 233 253