MS Food: Muted US Scanner Data Trends Through 6/13

Research evidence excerpt

MS Food: Muted US Scanner Data Trends Through 6/13

UpdateMExhibit 4: Inflection Tracker

Sales Y/Y 2 Yr Avg Sales Y/Y

L2W vs P2W L4W vs L12W L12W vs L52W L2W vs P2W L4W vs L12W L12W vs L52W

HSY Decelerating Accelerating Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Accelerating

SJM Decelerating Accelerating Decelerating Decelerating Accelerating Stable

GIS Decelerating Accelerating Decelerating Decelerating Accelerating Stable

SMPL Decelerating Stable Decelerating Decelerating Accelerating Decelerating

MDLZ Decelerating Stable Accelerating Decelerating Stable Stable

CAG Decelerating Stable Accelerating Decelerating Accelerating Decelerating

KHC Decelerating Decelerating Accelerating Decelerating Decelerating Stable

SFD Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Stable Decelerating

CPB Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Stable Decelerating

VITL Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Stable Stable Decelerating

BRBR Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Decelerating Stable Stable

Source: NielsenIQ, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 5: QTD Scanner Trends vs Street Estimate for Next Unreported Quarter

QTD Scanner Street Estimate for Next Unreported Qtr Gap (QTD - Street)

10.0% 1600bps

8.1%

1200bps

5.0% 4.7%

1.8% 800bps

0.1% 0.8% 0.0%

0.0%

-0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -0.9% -0.4% -0.2% 400bps

-2.9% -2.3% -1.9% -2.8% -2.7%

-5.0% -4.9%-4.5% 0bps

-5.6%

-400bps

-10.0%

-800bps

-12.5% -12.5%

-15.0%

-1200bps

-20.0% -1600bps

BRBR SJM KHC SFD MDLZ SMPL VITL HSY CAG GIS CPB

Note: For companies not on calendar year, we show F3Q Street estimates for SMPL, and BRBR and F4Q for CAG, CPB, GIS, and F1Q27

for SJM.

Source: Consensus Metrix, FactSet, VisibleAlpha, NielsenIQ, Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research 3