China Energy & Chemicals: China NOW: Oil Consumption

Research evidence excerpt

China Energy & Chemicals: China NOW: Oil Consumption

Update

June 24, 2026 01:44 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Energy & Chemicals | Asia Pacific Jack Lu

Equity Analyst

China NOW: Oil Consumption Jack.Lu@morganstanley.comKaylee Xu +852 2848-5044

Kaylee.Xu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1506

Key Takeaways

China’s implied gasoline and diesel demand weakened sharply in May, posting

12% and 21% declines YoY, respectively.

Jet fuel consumption remained resilient, rising roughly 5% YoY, while naphtha

consumption was broadly unchanged. China Energy & Chemicals

Asia Pacific

Total oil products consumption declined by 13.5% YoY in May, and down ~12% Industry View In-Line

YoY since SOH disruption.

This suggests that the primary source of demand destruction remains road

transportation and infrastructure building activity, rather than aviation or

chemical.

We believe the weakness reflects a combination of softer economic activity, slowing

infrastructure and logistics demand, and accelerating substitution toward EV-

dominated shared-mobility - high oil prices likely encouraged consumers to shift

mobility toward electric vehicles and public transit, further intensifying structural

pressure on traditional transport fuel consumption.

Exhibit 1: China monthly fuel consumption (including inventory movement)

mn ton China Gasoline Consumption mn ton China Diesel Consumption

15 2024 2025 2026 20 2024 2025 2026

14 18

13 16

12 14

11 12

10 10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: CEIC, China Customs, Oilchem, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 2: China fuel inventory and refiner run-rates: fuel inventory has been

elevated since SOH disruptions despite significant run-rate cuts at refiners