Marine Transportation: Newbuild Supply Pressure to Intensify for Container Ships

Research evidence excerpt

Marine Transportation: Newbuild Supply Pressure to Intensify for Container Ships

Idea

June 24, 2026 06:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMarine Transportation | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Newbuild Supply Pressure to Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Intensify for Container Ships

Geopolitical risks will likely affect share prices in short term. In

the longer term, we see intensifying risk of supply/demand

deterioration, concerns of IFIS forecast downgrades, and Marine Transportation

overvaluation. We stay Cautious in our Industry View. Japan

Industry View Cautious

Short-term investment view:Geopolitical risks/F3/26 1Q earnings: 1) What’s Changed

Re‑emphasize geopolitical risks (COVID-19, Suez Canal disruption, Middle East Nippon Yusen (9101.T) From To

tensions) as positive catalysts for shipping stocks, as such events tend to tighten Price Target ¥3,270 ¥3,440

vessel supply, drive supply-demand imbalance, lift spot rates, and raise expectations Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104.T) From To

for earnings upgrades. However, the current situation is more centered on energy- Price Target ¥3,580 ¥3,850

related businesses with medium- to long-term contracts, and we view the near-term Kawasaki Kisen (9107.T) From To

Price Target ¥1,240 ¥1,320

earnings impact as limited (the key beneficiaries in prior cases (COVID-19/Suez) were

container shipping businesses with higher spot exposure). 2) For F3/27 1Q, we think

earnings are likely to exceed initial guidance, supported in particular by firm trends Three shipper stocks: EPS changes

in container spot freight rates. Old/New EPS estimates

F3/27e F3/28e