Caterpillar: Meeting Takeaways From The Road; Power Gen Visibility & Capacity

Research evidence excerpt

Caterpillar: Meeting Takeaways From The Road; Power Gen Visibility & Capacity

Equity Research

U.S. Machinery & Construction

23 June 2026

Caterpillar

Meeting Takeaways From The

Road; Power Gen Visibility &

CAT EQUAL WEIGHTCapacity

U.S. Machinery & POSITIVE

Dialogue has fully pivoted to power gen y/y with capacity Construction Price Target USD 800.00

growth, order visibility, and long-tail services upside all Price (22-Jun-26) USD 1022.28

questions/taking points. Backlog understates true earnings Potential Upside/Downside -21.7% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

power. Machines execution remains underappreciated, while

investor focus stays fixed on durability of the AI-driven cycle. U.S. Machinery & Construction

Adam Seiden, CFA

+1 212 526 2212

We hosted CAT’s CFO Kyle Epley for his first in-person roadshow since ascending to the role adam.seiden@barclays.com

in May. Investors were most focused on power gen capacity, order visibility and competitor BCI, US

behavior. Mr. Epley expressed confidence in CAT’s measured investments relative to the size of

Vraj PatelCAT overall and the AI value chain. He noted the GW fungibility across various end-markets,

+1 212 526 2773

unconcentrated regional investment (particularly this next phase), and a strong emphasis on vraj.patel1@barclays.com

the services tail to come in the 2030’s. Of an hour meeting, power-gen was ~2/3rds of the BCI, US

conversation and machines (CI/RI) ~1/3rd. Investors asked a few questions on equipment

Tyler Russellpricing, very few on machine inventories, and almost zero on the construction cycle (all on

+1 212 526 7584

power cycle / structural shift – if deemed as such). It’s a further conversation tilt vs. our fall 2025 tyler.russell@barclays.com

roadshow and essentially a 180-degree turn vs. 2023-2024.