Week Of June 15: Flat Insurance Tape Amid Rate Pressures And Margin Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Week Of June 15: Flat Insurance Tape Amid Rate Pressures And Margin Watch

TD Cowen

Global Research June 21, 2026

slower organic growth as pressure points for broker valuations, while good underwriting

margins should keep P&C carrier deal flow active into 2H26.

■As cheap leverage and rate-driven organic growth fade, the broker roll-up trade looks less

active, while P&C balance-sheet risk and structured alternatives look more robust. That

should pressure downward broker sale multiples but support carrier and reinsurance M&A

—unless public and private broker appetite re-accelerates (which is a real possibility).

AJ Gallagher (AJG) held the line on 2026 growth—and leaned into capital deployment. At

its 6/17 Investor Day, AJG reiterated 6% consolidated organic revenue growth for FY2026,

including 5.5% in Brokerage and 8% in Risk Management. 2Q26 organic is tracking at 5% in

Brokerage and 11% in Risk Management. Property renewal pricing fell 9%, pressured by large

and CAT-exposed accounts, while casualty rose 5%; importantly, AJG does not expect another

property step-down in FY2027. M&A remains the priority, backed by $10B of capacity and an

active pipeline, while $170M of 2Q buybacks signal confidence in the stock.

■The read-through is positive for AJG and brokers. AI was framed as a productivity lever,

with margin and revenue upside over time (see our note here), while the slower pace of

property price declines is an encouraging pricing signal.

AJG Brokerage Renewal Premium Change (Rate + Exposure)

Source: Company report and TD Cowen. Note: n/a indicates figures were not provided

Industry participants estimate cyber reinsurance renewal rates fell 10-20% at July renewals, a

continuation of the trends at 1/1/26, per The Insurer.