Q2'26 Trends & JefData: Expert checks on Orb are positive

Research evidence excerpt

Q2'26 Trends & JefData: Expert checks on Orb are positive

Adyen N.V. (ADYEN NA)

Equity Research

June 19, 2026

The Long View: Adyen

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

• Unique unified technology platform provides cost and product capability

Upside : Downside

advantages to Adyen. 2000 1.92 : 1

• Class-leading unit economics and returns on capital. 1800

• Ample opportunity from core merchant acquiring business via new 1600 1605 (+78%)

merchant wins, deeper penetration of existing, and virtualisation (local 1400

acquiring).

1200 1166 (+29%)

• Additional medium- to long-term opportunities from ramping products

(issuing, embedded finance).

• We see take-rate erosion as positive given that it points to higher volume

(-40%) with existing merchants, i.e., deeper penetration and improved total 600 539

customer profitability. 400 2025 2026 +12 mo.

• We see Adyen as best positioned for a long-term growth opportunity in

Payments.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

€1166, +29% €1605, +78% €539, -40%

• Adyen's revenue growth remains stable in low • Adyen manages to bounce back to our Adyen's TPV growth decelerates to a 15% CAGR

20s over the medium term previous growth expectations, as lost share through 2030E, due to failed merchant adoption

• 2023 operating margin marks the trough, as is regained along with expansion into new of new products and increased competition...

growth opportunities from new product and verticals and geographies (e.g., India) • ...Driving average EBITDA margin down, due to

geographic expansion come through • Operating margin gradually expands through lower contribution margin from new hires and

• Implied 2025-30E TPV CAGR = 17% 2026, as new products (embedded finance) failed traction in recent product launches