Adyen "2Q 2026 preview and a deeper look at implied valuation" (Buy) Forsythe

Research evidence excerpt

Adyen "2Q 2026 preview and a deeper look at implied valuation" (Buy) Forsythe

Powered by Lab Global14 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Adyen Equities

Netherlands2Q 2026 preview and a deeper look at implied

valuation Software

12-month rating Buy

12m price target €1,350.00Setup into 2Q 2026

Prior : €1,600

After delivering 1Q net revenue growth in line to slightly above the buyside expectation

for 1Q (at 20% FXN YoY), and announcing its planned acquisition of Talon.one (€750m), Price (13 Jul 2026) €843.70

much has happened. Adyen announced its acquisition of Orb (a metered billing RIC: ADYEN.AS BBG: ADYEN NA

company) for €295m ($335m), reinvigorated debates around competition in payments,

CFO Ethan Tandowski's announced departure, Shopify Payments relationship Trading data and key metrics

progressing, macro environment variability, among others. We dive into each of these 52-wk range €1,583.40-785.20

items in more detail in our preview. For 2Q we model 21% net revenue growth YoY, Market cap. €26.0b/US$29.6b

which we believe is roughly where the buyside bar sits (with a marginal upside bias), Shares o/s 30.9m (ORD)

driven by the easing de minimis comparison relative to 1Q. While macro remains a topic Free float 85%

of discussion (discussed further below), and the environment appears to have worsened Avg. daily volume ('000) 150

marginally in 2Q (due to higher energy costs), to us, 20% for revenue growth seems less Avg. daily value (m) €134.1

likely. Also, there have been some debates on the margin profile of the business after the Common s/h equity (12/26E) €6.52b

closing of the acquisition of Orb and Talon.one on 1 July, which we reflect in our model. P/BV (12/26E) 4.1x

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM

We think Adyen remains attractive at these levels