Japan’s core CPI (May 2026): growth flat at 1.4% YoY

Research evidence excerpt

Japan’s core CPI (May 2026): growth flat at 1.4% YoY

19 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Comment

Growth in non-durables slows, esp. for food; growth in energy prices picking up

Chief Economist: Summary

Shunsuke Kobayashi Japan’s nationwide CPI rose 1.5% YoY in May 2026, accelerating from 1.4%

+81 3 6202 8222 growth in April and in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate (1.5%

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com growth). The core CPI (less fresh food) rose 1.4% YoY, unchanged from 1.4%

growth in April and in line with the market estimate (1.4% growth; see FigureEconomist:

3). The core-core CPI (less fresh food and energy) rose 1.8%, down from 1.9%Soichiro Hirose

growth in April but on par with the market estimate (1.8% growth). The CPI for+81 3 6202 8293

soichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com all items (less food [less alcoholic beverages] and energy) was up 1.1% YoY,

unchanged from 1.1% growth in April.

For the core CPI, the continued slowdown in non-durable goods prices was

largely offset by the accelerated growth in energy prices. Note that the rise in

energy prices is likely attributable not to a surge in resource prices, but rather

to technical factors related to government subsidies and base effects from the

previous year.

Details of May 2026 CPI

Looking at May trends by goods and services, price growth for non-durable

consumer goods (less energy, fresh food) slowed to 3.1% YoY (from 3.6% in

April; see Figure 7). Price growth slowed for food in particular, including rice.

Price growth for rice turned negative YoY for the first time since November

2022 and has been down MoM for six straight months. There was also a slight

impact from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government waiving basic water charges.