Trading house rebound unlikely until 1Q results season

Research evidence excerpt

Trading house rebound unlikely until 1Q results season

19 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Trading Companies

Industry Overview

Eye on positives from Middle East conflict in 1Q while monitoring developments

Senior Analyst: No rebound in trading company stocks even after initial peace deal

Kanako Mizuno In our 9 June investment strategy report, we identified two potential triggers

+81 3 6202 8130 for a reversal in trading company shares: 1) a resolution of the Middle East

kanako.mizuno@mizuho-sc.com conflict; and 2) 1Q results announcements. Unfortunately, we have seen

no such reversal even after US President Donald Trump formally signed a

framework agreement with Iran on 18 June. The likely reason is that this

agreement is only a provisional deal, which means there is still uncertainty.

The US and Iran aim to reach a final agreement through the subsequent 60-

day negotiation process. The temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

helped Brent prices to fall more than 30% from a peak of $118/barrel to $80/

barrel as of 19 June (see Figure 3). Our focus going forward is on whether

the price falls below the end-February pre-conflict level of $72/bbl, finds a

floor, or rises again. We do not expect prices to fall significantly below end-

February levels, given restocking demand from countries releasing energy

strategic reserves, demand for geographically diversified procurement amid

heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand during summer in the

Northern Hemisphere (as “super” El Niño events are highly likely to occur in

2026).

Do trading company shares reflect benefits of higher energy

prices?

The relative performance of trading companies versus TOPIX (see Figure 1)

shows that Mitsui (8031) and Mitsubishi (8058) share prices rose from March