China Industrials: Humanoids - Catalyst Previews: What's Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

China Industrials: Humanoids - Catalyst Previews: What's Ahead

IdeaCatalystMEvent Preview

Company / Catalyst Date Importance Surprise

Leader Harmonious Drive Systems 688017.SS

Tesla Optimus Gen3 unveil and

3Q26 Very High In-line

production update

Takeaways:

• Tesla previously announced that Optimus could unveil around July-August. We expect this to be a key

catalyst for the China humanoid supply chain.

• However, if the unveil is delayed, this would be a downside risk for the sector sentiment.

• From our recent trip feedback, suppliers suggest that progress at the leading US humanoid players has

been somewhat delayed.

• They see the current volumes remain limited and are unlikely to reach 1,000 units per week in 4Q26.

Their expectations for 2027 appear more constructive.

• LeaderDrive previously stated it supplies harmonic reducers and bearings to a US leading integrator.

Any market share gain/loss will be a key up/downside risk.

Domestic integrators' IPO updates 3Q26 Very High Modest upside surprise

• Unitree has passed the Shanghai Stock Exchange listing committee review and is now awaiting

regulatory approval.

• The listing could take place in the coming 1-2 months if the process concludes smoothly. However,

timing may also depend on A-share issuance conditions.

• DeepRobotics and Leju have also filed listing applications.

• We believe this emerging humanoid IPO wave should help raise investor attention toward robotics

equities.

Integrators' commercialization update /

3Q26 Very High Modest upside surprise

order announcement for real use cases

• The industry's commercial verification is ongoing, and we expect further progress in 2H26.

• Evidence of humanoid robot's proven commercial value would be important validation for the long-