China Industrials: Humanoids: The Tide is Rising, Lifting 2026 Forecast

Research evidence excerpt

China Industrials: Humanoids: The Tide is Rising, Lifting 2026 Forecast

Idea

June 23, 2026 08:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Industrials | Asia Pacific Sheng Zhong

Equity Analyst

Humanoids: The Tide is Rising, Sheng.Zhong@morganstanley.comCarlos Chai +852 2239-7821

Research Associate

Carlos.Chai@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3180

Lifting 2026 Forecast Chelsea Wang

Jinlin.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1118

Commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain

feedback point to faster humanoid adoption in China. We raise

our 2026 shipment forecast to 50k units. We prefer Leaderdrive,

Hengli Hydraulic and Shuanghuan.

China Industrials

We lift our 2026 humanoid robot shipment forecast to 50k units, from 28k, and

Asia Pacific

expect 446k by 2030e, as integrators compete to leverage deployment scale to Industry View In-Line

close the deployment‑data loop. More companies in China have announced mass What’s Changed

production starting from late 2026, such as XPeng. In the meantime, the shipment Leader Harmonious Drive

mix should gradually shift toward full‑size humanoids, at c.30%/50%/70% in 2026- Systems (688017.SS) From To

Price Target Rmb269.00 Rmb464.00

28, in our view. Our supply‑chain checks point to a constructive outlook for volume

and the start of automated production lines. Exhibit 1 : Upcoming Catalysts - For details,

please see our catalyst preview report.Accelerated progress: Commercialization was the key theme in our 2026 outlook.

In 1H26, we saw humanoid integrators, enterprise users, and government push Date Catalyst

Jun 30 UBTECH's UWORLD U1 Launch Event

commercial verification/adoption. For example, State Grid placed a Rmb6.8bn order July World Artificial Intelligence Conference 2026 (WAIC)