India Consumer - 4QFY26 review: Discretionary – some headwinds on the horizon

Research evidence excerpt

India Consumer - 4QFY26 review: Discretionary – some headwinds on the horizon

Global Markets Research

12 June 2026India Consumer

EQUITY: CONSUMER RELATED

4QFY26 review: Discretionary – some headwinds on the horizon Research Analysts

India Consumer Related

Sales/EBIT for Jewellery grew 63%/61% y-y; Cigarettes grew 12%/14% y-y; Spirits grew 7.5%/29% Mihir P. Shah - NFASL

y-y; QSR grew 11%/6% y-y; Apparel grew 19%/31% y-y mihir.shah1@nomura.com

+91 22 403 74232

Trends across consumer discretionary companies Riya Patni - NFASL

riya.patni@nomura.com

• Jewellery: +91 22 405 33473

○ Jewellery companies witnessed strong 63% y-y sales growth (Fig.3) aided

by elevated gold prices, which rose 81% y-y. The cool off in gold prices in March

led to the return of buyer growth (which was flat for 9MFY26) who were waiting on

the sidelines. It also led to the advancement of wedding demand in anticipation of

gold prices rising further.

○ Organised jewellery players continued their retail expansion and launched

more lower-caratage gold jewellery to soften the impact of high gold prices.

○ EBIT margins held up on a y-y basis, but contracted sequentially (Fig.7) due

to adverse mix from: 1) higher gold coin sales (low margin), 2) high gold prices

diluting studded margins, and 3) higher offers/campaigns to draw customers in an

elevated gold price environment. EBIT grew 61% y-y as not many players except

Titan (TTAN IN, Buy) hedge 100% of their gold inventory and thus saw some

tailwind from gold price-led inventory appreciation.

○ Going forward:

○ 1QFY27F seems to be mixed with April sustaining high growth similar to

4Q led by strong Akshaya Tritiya sales and a low-base from Adhik-maas

(considered an inauspicious time to purchase gold) which was in April last

year.