India Consumer - Commodity tracker: RMs moderated from peak but still up y-y/q-q

Research evidence excerpt

India Consumer - Commodity tracker: RMs moderated from peak but still up y-y/q-q

Global Markets Research

15 June 2026India Consumer

EQUITY: CONSUMER RELATED

Commodity tracker: RMs moderated from peak but still up y-y/q-q Research Analysts

India Consumer Related

Inflationary trend: palm/edible oil, LLP, packaging; Deflationary trend: copra, coffee, cocoa, Mihir P. Shah - NFASL

sorbitol; Least impacted: TTAN, BRIT, NEST, MRCO; Most impacted: ITC, USL, EPL, CLGT mihir.shah1@nomura.com

+91 22 403 74232

Raw material prices – May to mid June 2026 Riya Patni - NFASL

Key raw material prices have gradually moderated from their peak over May and June till riya.patni@nomura.com

date, after a sharp escalation in April; however, they are still up y-y/q-q and will impact +91 22 405 33473

near-term margins in 1QFY27F, in our view. Notable trends were: (1) Brent Crude Oil

and HDPE prices have moderated 28% y-y and 10% y-y from their peak but are still up

+61% y-y and +80% y-y, respectively, due to the West Asia conflict – which will increase

raw material costs for paint companies, despite the price hikes, and drive higher

packaging costs across consumer companies from 1Q. (2) Palm oil spot prices

stabilized m-m but remain elevated at 33% y-y in INR terms. Both Godrej Consumer

Products (GCPL IN, Buy) and Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN, Buy) had called out high-

single to double-digit inflation, but have taken only mid-single-digit price hikes which we

believe could exert some pressure on their 1QFY27F margins. (3) Gold prices have

moderated c.13% from their peak (-2% m-m/+1% q-q), which we believe could bring back

footfalls/volumes and drive higher value growth for jewelry players like Titan (TTAN IN,

Buy). (4) Liquid paraffin prices remained elevated (+13% q-q/+42% y-y) albeit there was