NIBE (AO) | Buy | Energy-efficient heat pumps

Research evidence excerpt

NIBE (AO) | Buy | Energy-efficient heat pumps

ader ecosystem, including ventilation, controls, monitoring and digital energy management.

Regarding the EU’s tighter F-gas heat pump regulation, NIBE seems to be on top of it. NIBE has a long history of producing heat

pumps using R290 propane refrigerant, while older refrigerants such as R32 and others will gradually be phased out. The

company sees propane as a more environmentally attractive natural refrigerant.

NIBE has also introduced air-to-air heat pumps in cooperation with Mitsubishi, positioned as complementary products rather

than direct competition with NIBE’s existing offering.

Within the Element division, NIBE sees opportunities through the ongoing electrification trend, increasing demand for electrical

heating and industrial applications, and its broad exposure to diverse end markets that support steady long-term growth.

The stove business has had a difficult period after strong demand during the pandemic and following Russia’s invasion of

Ukraine. Margins are currently weak, around 4%, although NIBE sees a more normal margin range of around 10–13%. The

difference is mainly due to the US import duties, which affect NIBE negatively since it sources stoves from Canada into the US and

soft consumer demand.

NIBE sees the largest acquisition opportunities within Climate Solutions, particularly in heat pumps, ventilation, controls, energy

management and commercial HVAC solutions. Acquisitions are expected to complement organic growth by adding products,

technology, manufacturing capacity and market access, supporting the company's ambition to double sales over time.

Our investment view

We expect NIBE to benefit from a growing demand for heat pumps in Europe and expect a yearly growth of 10%, which would